Roto Arcade

Closing Time was such a gas during the baseball season, we're offering a hockey version of it twice a week – once on the weekend, and once in the middle of the week. Settle in for some bulleted content as we collect observations from a heavy batch of Saturday action on the frozen pond.

• Life on the Joe Thornton line is agreeing with winger Devin Setoguchi. He potted his second goal of the year Saturday, rolled up five shots, and added a couple of hits for good measure. The only thing missing from the Setoguchi profile right now is power-play time; he's been used as a spare part on the man advantage through two games, with 10 teammates logging more PP time than him. But anytime you see a former first-round pick come out of the chute producing, be ready to pounce.

• I didn't get much of the Montreal power play in my drafts (it was not a buyer's market) and I'm probably going to regret that most of the season. Sergei Kostitsyn's upside is a lot higher than I thought a year or so ago; he's a great finisher, but he can create his own opportunities, too.

• Good to see that Alexander Ovechkin isn't going to succumb to the Yahoo! fantasy cover athlete jinx. Washington's employee No. 8 had two goals and six shots in Saturday's win, dished out a few hits, and pretty much had the puck glued to his stick all night. He's the most electrifying player in hockey right now and no one is even close.

• Keep an eye on the underrated Michal Rozsival, who's keeping first-unit power play time in New York and has a big enough shot to score 10 or more times. Rosie potted his first goal of the year Saturday, a howitzer from 50 feet.

• Just one assist for Patrice Bergeron on Saturday at Minnesota, but he was all over the ice. Keep this guy healthy for another month and his ownership level will hit a major spike.

Here are the essential details from the Tacoma News Tribune:

After Hasselbeck missed practice for a third straight day with a hyperextended knee suffered in last Sunday’s loss to the New York Giants, Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren on Friday said it is unlikely that the quarterback will be able to play against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday because the injury has not responded to treatment.

With Seneca Wallace incurring a calf injury earlier in the week, Holmgren said Charlie Frye will probably start against the team Holmgren once took to a Super Bowl title.

No, you probably weren't starting Hasselbeck this week -- he was No. 20 in the Yahoo! composite QB ranks -- but you may have been considering other pieces of the Seattle offense. If we were to re-do the Week 6 ranks today, I'd drop Bobby Engram at least 15 spots. No other Seattle receiver deserves serious fantasy consideration. Here's another nugget from the News tribune:

Holmgren also confirmed on Friday that Bobby Engram and Koren Robinson are likely to be Frye’s starting wide receivers, with Keary Colbert, Billy McMullen and Michael Bumpus working into the rotation.

This will be the first start for Robinson, who was signed three weeks ago but has been unable to practice or play because of a sore knee.

So no Deion Branch (heel). He didn't practice on Friday.

Frye is not to be started in fantasy leagues. He has 14 touchdown passes and 34 turnovers (23 INTs, 11 lost fumbles) in 21 career games. You might recall that he needed only 10 pass attempts to lose his job with Cleveland last season. He'll patiently hold the ball until you arrive to sack him.

Each week the Noise will guide desperate, deep-thinking owners into the dark corners of the waiver wire to mine a last-minute diamond. Turn on your helmet light and pack a pickaxe. We're digging for drop-jaw surprises owned in less than 10 percent or started in less than five percent of Yahoo! leagues.

JaMarcus Russell (30 percent owned, five percent started) is ready to rise up to the challenge of a rival.

In the same sweet-smelling stadium where he was crowned Sugar Bowl MVP in 2007 (the Superdome) the former LSU standout returns, this time in Silver and Black.

While playing in Lane Kiffin's ultra-conservative offense, Russell's kid gloves rarely came off. Probably for good reason. In eight career games he's posted a mere 54.5 completion percentage. 

But Al Davis' delusional management style has actually benefited the former No.1 pick. With boy blunder Kiffin at home playing electric football, new head honcho Tom Cable plans to overhaul the Raiders' smash-mouth offense. Per the Oakland Tribune:

"We have to be more balanced, be willing and enjoy the fact that we're going to take shots down the field on people. Those two concepts have to happen for us to keep people off-balance."

Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Knapp is focused on developing Russell into a QB prizefighter, something the second-year rocket launcher, who totaled a career-high 277 yards last week versus San Diego under Knapp's direction, is thrilled with.

"Last game you could tell the difference with the pass and the run. With him (Knapp) calling the plays, you could see it open up a little bit more."

Yes, Russell is still extremely green and his primary weapon Javon Walker has tallied more facial fractures than touchdowns since June but, with Knapp's guidance, he should finish with appreciable totals in consecutive weeks. The Saints have surrendered 257 yards and 1.2 scores per game, equal to the 12th-most fantasy points conceded to quarterbacks. They've also allowed nineteen 20-yard pass plays, the most in the NFL.

Knapp will surely take advantage of 'Nawlins' weakness by attacking them vertically. Given Russell's cannon arm, look expect him to connect with Walker or fleet-footed jet Johnnie Lee Higgins on a couple of explosive pass plays.

This week, Russell's "Eye of the Tiger" won't blink.

Week 6 Fearless Forecast: 23-38, 264 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

Previous Shockers: Hank Baskett (2-102-TD), Brian Griese (160-1-0), James Jones (1 drop, injury), Lance Moore (7-101-2TDs), David Martin (1-25-0)

Who is your Week 6 Shocker Special? Post your selection with projection in the comments section below.

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Image courtesy of US Presswire

At the risk of further eroding the credibility of fantasy experts everywhere, let's take a look at the top 15 running backs through Week 5, sorted by fantasy points per game. We'll include everyone's average draft position, too, just to emphasize how little we all knew, back when knowing something might have helped:

Top scoring RBs

1. Michael Turner, ATL, 48.0 ADP, 17.8 PPG
2. Ronnie Brown, MIA, 72.9, 17.5
3. Frank Gore, SF, 10.3, 16.2
4. Reggie Bush, NO, 58.7, 16.2
5. Brian Westbrook, PHI, 4.4, 15.8
6. Clinton Portis, WAS, 12.0, 15.2
7. Marion Barber, DAL, 8.4, 15.0
8. Matt Forte, CHI, 90.6, 15.0
9. Steve Slaton, HOU, NA, 14.8
10. Willie Parker, PIT, 49.5, 14.3
11. Le'Ron McClain, BAL, NA, 13.5
12. Brandon Jacobs, NYG, 31.3, 13.5
13. Adrian Peterson, MIN, 2.3, 13.0
14. Steven Jackson, STL, 4.7, 12.8
15. Julius Jones, SEA, 101.7, 12.8

You're free to draw your own conclusions about how this list should affect draft strategy in '09. And no, it's not clear that a random fantasy expert would have outperformed, say, a random laboratory chimp who selected players by flinging (expletive) at a draft board.

But if you're going to be a successful fantasy owner, you'll need to get comfortable with uncertainty. Chris Liss put it well in this week's East Coast Offense:

The difference between the savvy owner and the less savvy one, is that the former is self aware about his lack of knowledge, while the latter makes an informed guess and mistakes it for fact.

The purpose of this post isn't to have a philosophical fantasy discussion, however. Let's return to that list of running backs.

Every Friday during the NFL season, we'll review the Yahoo! weekly position ranks. If an expert breaks from the herd on a particular player, they'll be asked to show their work. You're encouraged to discuss the wisdom or lunacy of these opinions in comments. The always-tricky running back position will lead us off this week.

Joseph Addai (Behrens rank: 13; Yahoo! composite rank: 19).

The issue with Addai has really been workload, not performance. He's averaging 4.5 yards per carry over his last two games, and he's reached the end zone in each of his last three. However, the Colts are last in the AFC in time of possession and Addai hasn't yet carried more than 17 times. He scored three touchdowns against the Ravens in Week 14 last season, so the match-up won't cause me to move him outside my top 20. I don't consider him a top-ten RB this week, but I'm not ready to send him to the bench in 10-team public leagues, either.

Steve Slaton (Big Noise rank: 23; Yahoo! composite rank: 15).

Smothered in hyperbole in last week's Noise, Slaton will be a fantasy nightmare in non-PPR formats. Tony Sparano has done a masterful job turning one of the league's most laughable defenses into a staunch foe. The Fins have yielded just 3.4 yards per carry, 98.3 total yards per game and two scores to backs, equal to the third-fewest fantasy points allowed. Yes, the Slasher is still the primary subject of the Noise's pigskin mantasies, but this week he'll attempt to gash Miami's stiff 3-4 with a butter knife. Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 62 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns.

The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Ryan Fitzpatrick will start for the Bengals against New York on Sunday. Carson Palmer's elbow remains officially "inflamed."

Fitzpatrick was a mess against Cleveland two weeks ago (156 passing yards, 3 INTs, 1 FUM). He should not be started by fantasy owners, except in the deepest two-quarterback leagues. Like the headline says, you should be interested in the Jets DEF this week.

Here are a few non-statements from Marvin Lewis about Palmer:

Is Carson Palmer’s injury more serious than originally reported or believed?

“No. It’s no different than it was,” said Lewis, who then was asked if Palmer’s status would be a week-to-week situation. “Hopefully not; that’s what we’re trying to get it out of and get it not to be a week-to-week thing and get the thing calmed down to where it doesn’t give him any irritation or complications at all.”

Just calm the thing down, that's all they need to do. Nothing to see here. It's not yet clear which Palmer (Jordan or Carson) will be the Bengals' No. 2 quarterback in Week 6.

Please join us at noon ET on Sunday at Fantasy Football Live for a thorough review of those who are starting and sitting. Right now, we can also tell you that Brian Westbrook, Reggie Brown, Anquan Boldin, Jeremy Shockey and Jon Kitna are either "out" or very doubtful.

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Photo via Getty Images

You know how I feel about early-season pickups in any fantasy sport, and with that in mind, it feels like a good idea to give you a quick look back at hockey's (real) opening night.

• San Jose: Jonathan Cheechoo is one player who definitely needed a good push to open the year, and he got just that with a couple of early goals against the Ducks. A new coach, a surge of confidence, all those sweet power-play feeds from Joe Thornton, it's a set-up that should ensure 30 goals or more for Cheechoo, and I won't be surprised if he hits 40 . . . Rob Blake picked up two assists, fired seven shots on goal, and looked pretty solid on the first power-play unit. There's still value in this cagey vet . .  . Devin Setoguchi opened with a goal and an assist, but he wasn't used much on the power play.

• Boston: Remember that Patrice Bergeron was seen as a potential star before last year's concussion problem. His two opening-night assists put him back on the radar again, and the Bruins quietly have two pretty decent scoring lines.

• Colorado: Peter Budaj didn't have a great camp, then he flopped in the opener against Boston (five goals on 20 shots). Andrew Raycroft is far from a savior, but he'll get his chance to play soon enough.

• Toronto: Pavel Kubina seems to get hurt a lot and he's not the most reliable guy in his own end of the rink, but he's always had decent offensive skills (11-29-40 in 72 games last year) and he reminded us of that with a power-play tally at Detroit. If you're in a league where plus/minus doesn't count, Kubina's value gets a push forward. He's ornery enough to be around 100 penalty minutes.

In most of my leagues, trading markets are frozen. Nothing moves...not the good assets, not the toxic assets. Fear rules. 

This is largely due to the fact that my leagues are full of fantasy professionals, and we're all a bunch of bedwetters who lack the necessary man-parts to make serious deals, even when a trade can clearly help us both, Funston! patient, risk-averse deep-thinkers.

Many experts would rather lose a league than lose a trade. Thus, I've only succeeded in making low-level deals to cover bye weeks. There's nothing worth analyzing, and certainly no reason for me to gloat.

Yet in real leagues where owners aren't so timid, trade markets are lively. Greed trumps fear. Responsible owners are doing whatever they can to improve. You're looking ahead to Chris Johnson's rather friendly schedule, and you're buying. Or you're fretting about LaDainian Tomlinson's toe, so you're selling.

Today, we're offering a few incredibly basic trade-related suggestions to those of you who are participating in competitive, active leagues (that don't resemble mine in any way)...

We spend more time analyzing quarterbacks than any other position in this crazy numbers racket, and here are the five signal callers I'll be focused on the most as Week 6 unfolds:

Donovan McNabb, at San Francisco: It's a must-win game for the Eagles and McNabb goes into battle with a compromised set of weapons; Brian Westbrook probably won't play, Reggie Brown hasn't been practicing, and no one knows what Kevin Curtis is ready to handle. Some pundits are calling for Correll Buckhalter to cut up San Francisco's sagging run defense, but I see two reasons why that's unlikely: the Niners are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry on the ground (it's not the sieve that the gross yards suggest), and Andy Reid never met a passing play he didn't like. At the end of the day, no matter what he's working with, I think the timing is right for McNabb to have one of his better games of the year, even if he's throwing to Harold Carmichael and Vince Papale at the end of it all. Week 6 Projection: 303 yards, multiple touchdowns.

Philip Rivers, vs. New England: He's one of the most frustrating players to watch in the league right now, capable of looking like a Pro Bowler and a CFL reject in the same quarter. The mechanics aren't consistent and the production hasn't been either, but the Chargers don't have time for Rivers to gradually improve - they need him to ascend now because it's obvious LaDainian Tomlinson is compromised by a bad toe. The Patriots are a curious match for Rivers and friends; while Bill Belichick is still one of the best schemers in the business, New England has a very slow linebacking corps and exploitable pieces in the secondary. If the Chargers are wise, they'll look to get Darren Sproles involved in the passing game; the Pats have no good matchup for him. Week 6 Projection: Completion percentage of 65 percent or better, two scores (one to a running back).